Survey USA (9/5-7, likely voters, 7/18-20 in parens):
John Yarmuth (D-inc): 53 (53)
Anne Northup (R): 45 (43)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
In a poll taken in the brightest (or darkest?) moments of the Republican convention hazy afterglow, John Yarmuth is still holding his own in his rematch against Anne Northup in this Louisville-based D+2 district. As you’ll recall, Yarmuth defeated ten-year incumbent Northup in 2006. Northup went on to do herself no favors by losing the 2007 gubernatorial primary to the scandal-soiled Ernie Fletcher.
This has shaped up to be a big money race, with both Yarmuth and Northup being prolific fundraisers. Yarmuth still maintains a sizable cash edge, although he lost the 2Q race.
SSP rates this race as Lean Dem.
I’ve thought for a long time now that this race would end up being somewhere between a 56-44 and 54-46 win for Yarmuth. Hopefully Northup will stay retired after becoming a 3-time loser. If you can’t beat an insanely corrupt Governor in a primary you don’t deserve to still be in politics.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
Rossi (R) 48%
Gregoire (D) 47%
I am really pushing that race. I know Boswell can’t raise money, but he has sky-high name recongition, and his conservatism may awaken enough yellow dog Dems to get him to Washington. The fact that Brett Guthrie or the NRCC has not released polling to counter the two released polls is telling to me.
Again, incidentally, I am curious if other people think that a candidate’s failure to release his/her own polling to counter an opponent’s good poll should be taken as a sign that s/he is not doing so hot?
but I think Yarmuth can handle it by himself.
The DCCC has $659K of adtime reserved in this district. I think it’s time for that to be shifted to KY-02.
If this race draws some more money from the national party’s coffers, I don’t begrudge it. Northup was a rising star in the GOP not so long ago, and I’d really like to see her political career buried deep under a mountain of campaign debts and bitterness, so that she goes back to doing whatever she used to do for a living and abandons politics for good.
We must learn from that great role model, Zsa Zsa Gabor: if you’re going to slap a policeman, make sure he stays slapped. I think crushing young(ish), up-and-coming Republicans is worth an extra dose of caution. I want to see this one go the way of Susan Molinari – forgotten.
We need to build a better bench in Kentucky, and we need to play whack-a-mole with any Republicans who threaten their prospects. We (and the voters) have smacked this one twice, but the third time pays for all.